The war in Afghanistan started when the U.S. and its NATO allies launched a military attack following 9/11 terrorist attacks. The initial plan was to go after Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, the terrorist group that orchestrated 9/11 from Afghanistan which was under the Taliban rule at that time. The Taliban’s failure to cooperate in handing over Bin Laden and other al Qaeda leaders to the United States led to the group’s overthrow following days of an airstrike campaign code named Operation Enduring Freedom that targeted al Qaeda and the Taliban. However, the war has lasted two decades and spanned four administrations, making it the longest war in American history and the most expensive war. This article analyses U.S.’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implications.
The world watched in disbelief as the country quickly fell into the hands of the Taliban and many security experts are wondering whether the U.S. imagined the possibility of the situation playing out the way it did, or does the U.S. now add Afghanistan to its list of failed missions/wars. One of the objectives for staying in Afghanistan was to ensure that the Afghan government had full control of its territory and avoid the country’s use for international terrorism. And for this reason, billions of American tax payers’ money has been spent on training Afghan forces, yet they put up little or no fight against Taliban military takeover. This explains President Biden’s frustration but again the Afghan forces’ lack of morale has been attributed to corruption in top leadership both in government and security forces, and the Taliban’s threat to harm their families.
Experts have also highlighted that a number of mistakes were made along the way for example; losing sight of the bigger picture, that is, elimination of the threat of Al Qaeda and instead focusing on Afghanistan. This lack of a single objective in Afghanistan also explains U.S.’s chaotic withdrawal. The plan was to avenge 9/11 terrorist attacks but after Kandahar fell in December, 2001 signaling the official end of Taliban rule and the fleeing of bin Laden and al Qaeda leaders, the mission then changed to peacekeeping and reconstruction. Even after the elimination of bin Laden a decade later, the war dragged on for another decade. The extended stay in Afghan was also necessitated by the war on terror a term that became very common after 9/11 characterised by U.S. counterinsurgency strategy against terrorism.
The U.S. – Taliban Peace Deal
During President Trump’s regime, the U.S. and the Taliban reached an agreement where both sides agreed on a number of factors such as withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan on guarantee from the Taliban that Afghanistan will not be a breeding ground for international terrorism. But with the take-over of the country and the chaotic scenes portrayed in international media including suicide attacks and explosions by ISIS-K at Kabul airport, one wonders whether the Taliban will uphold its side of the bargain. Besides, in the past the group has terrorized the Afghan people and its gun-wielding members on the streets of Kabul have left many Afghans scared and seeking refugee out of the country, with hundreds of thousands making desperate moves and some risking their lives than to be under Taliban military rule.
Whether the peace deal is still relevant and will be implemented is another hard puzzle to crack and with the abrupt change in the status quo in Afghanistan, it’s hard to tell whether the Taliban is still interested in the outcomes of the deal now that it seized power and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country having resigned.
Is there a chance for democracy in Afghanistan under the Taliban?
The Taliban has forcefully seized power and with the former president currently out of the country, it’s not clear how the new government is going to look like. While the group is talking about forming an inclusive government and seeking cooperation from the rest of world, there is no guarantee that the rights of women and girls will be respected and that women will freely participate in politics.
The right thing the Taliban should do is organize elections for the people of Afghanistan to choose their leaders but with the way the group operates, this is wishful thinking. Yet using the power of the gun to force allegiance from Afghan people puts their reign in the lime light and it’s just a matter of time when the people will be hit the streets demanding for their rights. At the moment the situation is chaotic with people trying to get their money out of the banks, but for an economy that has been funded by the West especially the U.S., one wonders what the situation is going to be with the Taliban in the driving seat. Unless the group does things differently, once its rule is mired in human rights abuses and crimes against humanity, the international community especially the West will retaliate with sanctions and the Afghan people will pay the price.
While there have been allegations of corruption in the ousted U.S. backed Afghan government, there is no guarantee that Taliban-formed government will be accountable and transparent. Recent history has it that when the military group seized power in 1996 following an occupation by the Soviet Union, it was considered to be among the most corrupt in the world. About 80 percent of Afghanistan’s budget is funded by the United States and other international donors but that funding has been temporarily put on hold. The Taliban is likely to turn to Kremlin and Beijing for financial support and given Russia and China’s track record, their cooperation with the military group might not be tied to its respect for human rights and rule of law.
Does U.S. withdrawal amplify the threat of global terrorism?
Did American avenge 9/11? Yes, but the threat of another terrorist attack to the magnitude of 9/11 is imminent which makes President Biden’s decision a bold mistake that leaves the U.S. and its allies more exposed to terrorist attacks. National security agencies have got to work extra hard in strategic intelligence gathering and analysis to avert possible terrorist attacks back at home. At the moment, the world is coming together to offer a safe haven for Afghans fleeing the country which is the right thing to do but countries accepting Afghan refugees should put into consideration that violent extremists might use this opportunity to disguise as refugees and travel to destinations from where they will plan and execute future attacks.
In conclusion, I think it’s too early to tell if the Taliban are going to do things differently and whether they learnt from their past mistakes. What the world witnessed with the last U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan is not how U.S. involvement in the country ends, especially with hundreds of Americans still in the country and their safety remains a priority to the Biden administration. It also may be time for the U.S. to go back to the drawing board and rethink its counterinsurgency strategy, in this case I think the most important thing is ensuring there is peace in Afghanistan and that the country doesn’t turn into a haven for global terrorism and if talking to the Taliban may create opportunities to achieve this, then the U.S. and its allies have got to find a common ground to engage with the group.
By Patricia Namakula
